DATE: 1/20/2004 10:07:00 AM
Those "Bush Falls" Polls - The NYT had some poll numbers that pundits said Bush should be concerned about. Personally, I think it's good that Bush and Co. have been given a good scare, both by Dean's loss and by some drop in domestic support. Bush's greatest weakness is the tendency of he and his team to sit on their haunches when they're sure of victory. Still, though, Andrew Sullivan quotes a Republican analyst who points out the poll numbers may be skewed:
In the most recent Gallup poll, the party ID was 37 percent GOP and 37 percent Democratic. In the AP/Ipsos poll, the party ID was 42 percent GOP and 45 percent Democratic. And in the CBS/NYT poll on Sunday, the party ID was 34 percent GOP and 47 percent Democratic. Is it any wonder the numbers were what they were? This is more evidence, in my judgment, why you shouldn't trust the NYT polls. (In their last poll, the NYT had a ten-point advantage for Democrats in the party ID.)As though we needed any more reason not to trust polls.